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Slides, Inundation of Coastal USA and Worldwide.pdf

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Partial texts of slides, without the graphics

Slides, Inundation of Coastal USA and Worldwide

Inundation of Coastal China

Beijing

Shanghai

Typhoon Tracks, 1985-2005

Typhoons & Sea Level Rise

Inundation due to GHG (GreenHouse Gas) emissions and consequent temp increases, melting and sea level rise will get compounded by storm surges due to more powerful typhoons.

Typhoon power expenditure, wind and surge damages increase with sea surface temp.

Inundation of Coastal Texas

Houston Area

La Inundación de la Costa de México

Cancún También Amenazada

Hornos Solares

Feedback Cycle: Methane

Methane: 21X more potent as a GreenHouse Gas than CO2, as averaged over 100 years.

Permafrost in arctic region is melting, decomposing, emitting methane.

Many billions of tons of methane “ice” (clathrates, frozen hydrates) stored in shallow sediments below Arctic sea.

Arctic ice shield is melting.

If temp surrounding the methane hydrates warms a “few” C, the methane will likely bubble up, increasing radiative heating.

Climate modeling is extremely difficult for ice sheet crumbling, and for natural methane production from decomposition and release from shallow hydrates.

These effects could amplify common predictions of temp increase, possibly cause a speed up of increases in warming, if delay transition to renewable energy sources for decades.

Urgency Greater than Generally Realized

As natural methane gets released, it radiates more heat back to Earth, increasing warming rate.

Increased warming rate increases melting of frozen methane hydrates and methane emission from decomposition, increasing the overall methane release rate and increasing warming rate.

These feedback cycles probably will amplify warming, melting, and storm power far more than common predictions.

To delay and reduce natural methane release, it’s urgent to reduce human-induced emissions of CO2.

Sea Level Rise

Investment versus Sea Level Rise

Opportunities for International Cooperation

Europe has already made substantial transition to renewable energy sources that pay for investment over time, then pay dividends in economic savings, and clean, sustainable power.

In USA political will growing for reducing GHG emissions.

Agreement similar to or stronger than Kyoto Protocol will be possible after next USA presidential elections in 2008.

Shared interests: Cooperation between China and USA to reduce GHG emissions as soon as possible could save both countries enormous damages from increasing sea level, and storm severity.

Otherwise, damage rate will accelerate, possibly much sooner and with more severity than commonly predicted, since modeling is extremely difficult for ice sheet crumbling, and for natural methane production from decomposition and release from methane hydrates.

Children’s Choir in China

Outreach

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