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Slides, Climate Change, Further Topics

Antarctic Circumpolar Current  Increased heat transport from equator to poles means  increased wind speeds, and cooler circumpolar temp. Ekman Pumping 

CO2, Methane & Oil Capture  Methane & oil captured for usage while CO2 stored.  Capture and Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide

www.coal-seq.com

www.co2captureproject.org/technologies/tech_indexP2.htm 

Reduced  emissions  Enhanced oil recovery  Enhanced gas recovery CO2 Capture  • Although CO2 capture implemented in power plants abroad now,  if tech is still judged insufficiently proven in USA, could build  power plants “CO2 capture ready” to enable retrofit in near  future.  • Build to scrub more sulfur from the flue gas emissions than  regulations require, since low sulfur level needed for CO2  capture.  • Build highest possible thermal efficiency plants.

Subcritical  steam technology relatively inefficient. US utilities experienced  poor plant reliability using supercritical steam in 1960s, before  all the bugs had been ironed out. Supercritical steam technology  more efficient by around 20%, has been well proven in power  plants in Europe and Japan, better suited to CO2 capture.  • Leave spare land on site for location of the CO2 capture  equipment to be installed in near future. 

www.21st-strategies.comwww.ieagreen.org.uk

Investment versus Impacts  • Coal releases more CO2 per unit of energy  than any other source.  • However, coal burning will represent the  major increase in fossil fuel usage through  2100.  • Investment in CO2 capture by power  stations, and in other efforts to reduce  emissions or transition to renewable energy  sources costs far less than damages due to  emissions increasing warming, melting, sea  level, and storm severity.

Cheap Coal, High Cost  Remnants of mountains at the Hobet 21 stripmine  Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition, West Virginia

Examples of Proposed CO2 Capture Projects  • BP Carson DF2 project, California- 500 MW petroleum coke gasification, pre-  combustion capture CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Start-up 2011  • Future Gen project, USA- 275 MW coal IGCC, pre-combustion capture for  saline reservoir storage of CO2: Start-up 2012  • Saskpower project, Saskatchewan, Canada- 300 MW lignite fired power plant,  oxy-combustion CO2 for EOR or saline reservoir storage: Start up 2011  • BP Miller-Peterhead DF1 project, UK- 475 MW natural gas fired power plant,  pre-combustion capture CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Start up 2010  • Centrica project, UK- 800 MW coal-fired power plant, pre-combustion capture  CO2 for EOR: Start up 2011  • RWE project, Germany- 450 MW coal IGCC, pre-combustion capture for saline  reservoir storage of CO2: Start-up 2012  • France's Eramet, U.S. Alcan and Norway's Norsk Hydro, Norway- 400 MW  coal-fired power plant, post-combustion capture CO2 for EOR: Start-up 2011  • Shell/Statoil Halten project, Norway- 860 MW natural gas power plant, post-combustion capture CO2 for EOR: Start-up 2011

Ethanol  • Requires methane (natural gas) in processing.  • Still use diesel trucks to transport ethanol.  • Corn kernels are too high value in terms of fossil  fuels used in production of corn, & as food.  • Need low cost, high volume production of enzymes  to convert the fibers in stalks into sugars for  fermentation into ethanol.  • Switchgrass can be grown on marginal land of little  use for food production.  • Not a good solution until enzymes become  available to digest prairie grass, and corn stalks.

Climate Models  • Generally higher  confidence in  larger scale  projections and  greater uncertainty  at increasingly  small scales.

Natural Drivers vs. Human Forcing  Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Tony Blair, MP

Meehl, G.A. in Climate 17: 3721-3727 Contributions to net radiative forcing change, 1750-2004:  Changes in Irradiance Small Effect 

Urban Heat Island Effect  Rate of growth of urban pop. not continuing to accelerate as are temp and repercussions  such as melting. Largest temp increase in Arctic. So reject Urban Heat Island effect  hypothesis that measurements of temp biased to show temp increases, despite  compensation for urban heat islands.  www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm 

Urban growth accelerating, less rapidly 

• Measured global average temp is  accelerating beyond urban population  curve.  • Greatest increase in temp in Arctic.  • Melting of sea ice, worldwide glacial mass  • Therefore not true that measurements of  temp biased to show temp increases despite  compensation for urban heat islands.

Cosmic Rays and Surface  Temperatures 

NOAA, Climatic Research Unit

www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/taking-cosmic-rays-for-a-spin/ 

T increasing while CRs vary  with little correlation with T.

Green Buildings

Passive solar design for green buildings (www.nesea.org).

Energy audit consultants could assess building performance (Performance Systems Contracting in Ithaca) to identify priority improvements.

Buildings can be made more efficient by plugging air leaks and improving insulation, resulting in substantial savings, since cooling and heating cost the majority of building energy expenses.

Houses can become power producers via the renewables listed above. Solar power economical even in New York State.

Heating/Cooling Green Buildings  • Passive solar design: windows on S side. Utilize  overhangs to shade during summer, yet allow light  from lower sun into interior during winter. Thermal  mass (dark colored concrete, brick) absorbs and stores  heat; releases slowly at night in winter. Cools during  day in summer. Moderates temp extremes  (www.nesea.org).  • Plant trees to block wind in winter, cool in summer.  • Bring insulation, installations up to Energy Star.  • Base heating on solar thermal or geothermal.  • Fuel pros and cons: Methane (natural gas) most  efficient, cleanest fossil fuel, but increases C pool used  in C cycle. Wood particulates harm health, so not a  large scale solution. Also draws C from storage in trees.

Commitment to Long-Term Impacts  • With higher CO2 emissions peak & extent,  impacts are longer term, greater severity. 

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, TonyBlair, MP

Broad Range of Temp  Scenarios  Δ5.8°C  Δ1°C

2050  Range of  predictions Water vapor feedback included.  Methane hydrate feedbacks  not included.  Higher predictions with  lesser transition scenarios.     Melting of Greenland’s Ice Sheet  • Over last 20 years temps increased by  ~ 5.4°F (3°C) along SE coast of Greenland  • Snowmelt in 2005 most extensive on record  • Water denser than ice, forms through-holes.  • Water from moulins lubricates, warms base of ice sheet.  • Lubrication accelerates glacial sliding speed.

Figure by NOAA CIRES 

Entire sheet: Sea↑  7m~22ft  Moulins weaken  structure

Vast West Antarctic Ice Sheet  • Over a third rests on bedrock  as far as 2 km below sea level.  • Moulins conduct surface water  to base. Hydrostatic lift could cause runaway  crumbling & discharge into sea, ultimately raising  sea level 3m, due to GHG emissions & warming. 

Predictions of crumbling based on computer  modeling extremely difficult to make.  • Sea level could rise faster than predicted based on  modeling that does not include crumbling.  • All of which implies that... 

U.S. Geological Survey Worst Case Melting/Sea Level Rise  • If all land ice were to melt, sea level would rise by at  least ~ 68 meters (~156 feet) = Greenland (7m) +  Antarctic (61m).  • During Late Cretaceous ~ 86 million years ago, CO2  level was ~1100 ppm, ~3 times today’s level  • Average surface temp ~22°C, ~8°C warmer than  today.  • Sea level was well over 200 meters (656 feet) higher.  • Tectonic activity in most oceans spawned volcanoes  that pumped, extruded, lava onto the sea floors,  building submarine mountain ranges that increased  sea levels more than is possible today.  www.mpimet.mpg.de/presse/faqs/wie-stark-steigt-der-meeresspiegel.html

Worst Case Warming  700 million years

Average global temp  Year 2005 T~14.8°C 

Overshot Phanerozoic CO2 levels and global temps inferred from changing paleogeography by C. R. Scotese

Average global T, today 14.8°C = 58.5°F

Phases: Earth Saved by Water Vapor Reduction in Arctic Sea Ice Extent 

Stabilising climate to avoid dangerous climate change — Hadley Centre

Alaskan Tundra Travel Days

Carbon Cycling: Permafrost  • In Arctic region, permafrost (gray) stores carbon, unless thaws.  • New growth in Arctic at higher temp traps CO2, whereas  decomposition and hydrate breakdown release methane & CO2. 

Methane (CH4)

Wildfires in Americas  • Mountains already losing winter snow pack weeks ahead  of time from Himalayas to CA Sierras, drier in summer.  • Increased temp: increased evaporation, dryness

Northern Boreal Forests 

“Earth’s green crown” encircles northern  hemisphere, covering 1.5 billion hectares, or  11 percent of Earth's land surface.  • Between 50 and 90 percent of existing  boreal forests likely to disappear as a result  of doubling of atmospheric levels of carbon  dioxide: higher temps.  • Higher temps: increasing insect infestations,  evaporation, dryness, wildfires

Forests: It’s All in the Timing  • Managed forests were C sinks during last century.  • Managed-not as diverse: more vulnerable to insects.  • Aging managed forests: more vulnerable to fires.  • Potential net release of C from degrading forests  equal to 1/3 of C now in atmosphere.

Much of  tropical land ecosystem may become scrub and  desert, no longer serving for regulation of C.  • On timescale through 2100, fast C release from  deforestation in tropics may completely  overwhelm slow C uptake in high latitudes, even  though in the very long term the biosphere may  contain more C under high CO2 conditions. But we’re releasing far more C that was stored in fossil fuels over 100s of millions of years.

CO2 “Greening”: Harvests Increase??  • Even with a doubling of CO2, grain yields  increase less than 10% outside of controlled  laboratory conditions.  • In developed countries able to irrigate,  harvests may increase until temp ~5 °F  higher, then decline with larger increases in  temp, probably before 2100.  • In equatorial regions, crops already close to  the temp for maximum harvests, so harvests  decrease with further increase in temp  beyond present temp.

Carbon Cycle: Upsetting Balance    Red arrow = rapid fossil fuel burning 

koshland-science-museum.org

Processes Related to  Atmospheric Composition

CO2 Levels 

www.grida.no/climate/vital/22.htm

Increasing Clouds’ Net Effects Uncertain

High thin, cool 

Low Thick Clouds reflect solar  E into space

Amazon  Reduction of cloudiness due to smoke aerosols from biomass burning.  Precipitation crucial to rain forest.  

Thermohaline Circulation Currents  Orange shallow warmer current  Blue deep colder current 

Atlantic circulation gets accelerated and pulled N by sinking in N  Atlantic. Without thermohaline circulation, Atlantic circulation would  continue, forced by anti-cyclonic air circulation, but slower, further S.  Shutdown: Europe & NE USA too cool  for optimal harvests. Rest of world  would continue warming.

Reduced Salinity of North  Atlantic Waters  www.acia.uaf.edu

Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation  versus Fresh Water Input 

Fresh Water Forcing in Sverdrups

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Tony Blair, MP

P(Thermohaline Shutdown) 

Thermohaline Circulation vs.  Temp Increase

Projected global warming required to shut  down thermohaline circulation is 2.3°C.

Acidifying Oceans  • Damage to marine calcifying organisms  such as corals and calcareous plankton 

• Reduced transport of calcium carbonate to  marine sediments, reduced absorption of  CO2 by oceans

Coral-Oriented Sea Life    Coral Bleaching  • Corals live only 1-2oC below their upper  thermal limit.  • Average tropical ocean temps 1oC-3oC  warmer by 2100

Australian Gastric Brooding Frog  Female swallows fertilized eggs; ceases feeding; stops  secretion of HCl; tadpoles hatch in stomach.  Discovered in 1972, extinct 1985: fungal infection due  to increased UV radiation through shallower ponds,  weakening immunity. 

Since 1880  Average 1961–1990 temp 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

Ozone  • Shields Earth from 95% of UV. 

• CFCs deplete ozone: One chlorine ion can destroy  100,000 (O3) ozone molecules  • If ozone decreases, less UV absorbed in  stratosphere; harvests decrease; stratosphere cools  and shrinks.  • More UV absorbed in troposphere; GHGs in  troposphere heat and expand it, increasing  extreme weather events.  • Economy benefited from retrofits to accommodate  CFC substitutes and implementation of efficiencies.

Impacts of Global Temp Increases  • Now about +ΔT 0.5°C: Increases in extreme weather (storms,  droughts, floods), and other effects such as melting, already  being experienced globally.  • ΔT 1.5°C: Greenland’s Ice Sheet melting rapidly: 2xΔT  • ΔT 2°C: Increased water stress, sea levels rising, spread of  dengue and malaria, species extinction rate climbs as regional  ecosystems unable to adapt rapidly enough to temp increases.  • ΔT 2.5°C: West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting rapidly.  Thermohaline circulation collapse likely, slowing Gulf Stream  further, and moving it far enough south to reduce temps in North  Atlantic region.  • ΔT 2–3°C: Amazonian rainforest collapses (stomata), feedback  cycle; decreasing harvests of major food crops, grains

Tremendous Challenges Bring  Tremendous Spiritual Opportunities  • Climate change = Loss ==> Grief: Denial, anger,  bargaining, depression and acceptance of the  reality of probable loss, experiencing the pain of  the loss, reinvesting in the new reality.  • Lessons civilization could learn: Creation is not  only a natural resource to be exploited, not only  for our enjoyment and entertainment.  • Creation is the eternal in us; we are the eternal in  nature; we are one.  • Nature is to be revered: Creation salvation.

Scientific Method

Temp Changes: Δ°F = ? Δ°C  • “Δ1°C” means “change in temp of 1°C”.  • Δ1.8°F = Δ1°C  • Δ3.6°F = Δ2°C  • Δ5.4°F = Δ3°C  • Δ18°F = Δ10°C  • Δ°F = 1.8 X Δ°C = ~ 2 X Δ°C  • a°F=(b°C X 1.8°F/°C)+32°F comes from:  • T boiling - T freezing = 212°F -32°F = 180°F  = 100°C -0°C

Projected Change in  Permafrost Boundary  AD 2090 

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 

Sensitive to temp  increases since  just below  freezing in a layer  that’s four feet  thick. Methane  21X more potent  as a GHG than  CO2, averaged  over 100 years.  Release counters  increased uptake  by flora.

Venues  Seeking opportunities to speak to various groups  including business and political  Author of donated presentation: Sylvester  Johnson, Ph.D.

www.climatehealth.net


Slides, How to Reduce Emissions, Further Topics

Council on Agriculture, Science and Technology Recommends

Problem: Bacteria break down synthetic fertilizer to nitrous oxide, which has 310 times the Global Warming Potential of CO2. Synthetic fertilizer N energy-intensive to produce, transport, apply.

Use legume fertilization instead of synthetic. And increase N usage efficiency.

Increase carbon storage (sequestration) by increasing % of organic matter in soil, leaving roots in ground.

Reduce land clearing.

More usage of bio-fuels, grass pellets

Capture and burn methane from manure, but majority of dairy methane comes from digestion by cattle.

On-Farm Wind Turbine

Greenhouse Heated with Biodiesel Waste Vegetable Oil

Grass Pellets from Marginal Land

Insects and the Environment

Insects cold-blooded.

Temperature influences reproduction rate, development, survival, distribution. Mites decimating bee populations.

More generations per season: faster development of resistance to insecticides, more applications of insecticides.

Integrated Pest Management practices even more important, to avoid poisons

Fungal Infections More Challenging

Intense rainfall washes most fungicide off after only 10 minutes, so increased number of extreme rainfall events could mean more fungicide applications needed to control diseases.

Increased humidity favors fungal spore production, accelerating epidemic development.

Wheat and oats have been found to be more susceptible to rusts at higher temps.

Heat Stress Affects Livestock

Heat stress occurs for temp and humidity at which animal cannot maintain normal body temperature, becomes feverish, lowering productivity.

Select more readily digestible feed ingredients to lower heat production during digestion.

Water intake may increase by 20% to over 50% during heat stress

Install misters or sprinklers to wet the animal’s skin.

Added expenses for livestock industry

Livestock Farming Major Emissions Source

According to United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, livestock farming generates more heat-trapping gasses than transportation.

9% of human-related CO2, 37% of all human-induced methane [with 21 times Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2], largely produced by the digestive system of ruminants, 65% of nitrous oxide [with 310 times the GWP of CO2], and 64% of ammonia contributing to “acid” rain.

6.5+ billion people; livestock is 40% of global agricultural output.

Methane emissions: Biogas power stations to burn methane from decomposition of manure still don't address methane from ruminants’ digestive system, the majority.

Livestock Inefficient Food Source

Livestock farming occupies 30% of Earth’s entire land surface, mostly for permanent pasture but also including 33% of global fertile land for producing feed.

20% of pastures are considered degraded through overgrazing, compaction and erosion, advancing desertification.

70% of the acreage of former rainforests in Amazon have been converted to grazing.

Extensive water pollution: livestock wastes, antibiotics and hormones, chemicals from tanneries, fertilizers and the pesticides used to spray feed crops.

Further substantial public health risks, because animal diseases occasionally also infect humans, example bird flu.

Full-cost pricing for water, elimination of other subsidies

Greenhouse Gases that We Increase

CO2 Capture and Storage (Sequestration)

Although CO2 capture is being implemented in power plants abroad now, if tech is still judged insufficiently proven in USA, could build power plants “CO2 capture ready” to enable retrofit in near future.

Build to scrub more sulfur from the flue gas emissions than regulations require, since low sulfur level needed for CO2 capture.

Build highest possible thermal efficiency plants. Subcritical steam technology relatively inefficient. US utilities experienced poor plant reliability using supercritical steam in 1960s, before all the bugs had been ironed out. Supercritical steam technology more efficient by around 20%, has been well proven in power plants in Europe and Japan, better suited to CO2 capture.

Leave spare land on site for location of the CO2 capture equipment to be installed in near future.

Investment versus Impacts

Coal releases more CO2 per unit of energy than any other source.

However, coal burning will represent the major increase in fossil fuel usage through 2100.

Investment in CO2 capture by power stations, and in other efforts to reduce emissions or transition to renewable energy sources costs far less than damages due to emissions increasing warming, melting, sea level, and storm severity.

CO2 Capture Costs

Application of CCS to electricity production, under 2002 conditions, is estimated to increase electricity generation costs by about 0.01 -0.05 US dollars per kilowatt hour (US$/kWh), depending on the fuel, the specific technology, the location, and the national circumstances.

Higher expense if need to retrofit plants built using subcritical steam.

Geological Storage

Hazards result from leakage of CO2 from storage site to the surface and arise from three distinct causes 

Elevated gas-phase concentrations in the near-surface environment.

Effects of acidic dissolved CO2 on groundwater chemistry 

Effects that arise from the displacement of fluids by the injected CO2

Injected CO2 migrates up dip maximising dissolution & residual CO2 trapping

CCS is generally regarded as less desirable than:  energy efficiency improvements,  use of non-fossil energy sources

CCS: Geological Storage risks

Possible CCS Systems

Examples of Proposed CO2 Capture Projects

BP Carson DF2 project, California- 500 MW petroleum coke gasification, capture CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Start-up 2011

Future Gen project, USA- 275 MW coal IGCC, capture for saline reservoir storage of CO2: Start-up 2012

Saskpower project, Saskatchewan, Canada- 300 MW lignite fired power plant, oxy-combustion CO2 for EOR or saline reservoir storage: Start up 2011

BP Miller-Peterhead DF1 project, UK- 475 MW natural gas fired power plant, capture CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Start up 2010

Centrica project, UK- 800 MW coal-fired power plant, capture CO2 for EOR: Start up 2011

RWE project, Germany- 450 MW coal IGCC, capture for saline reservoir storage of CO2: Start-up 2012

France's Eramet, U.S. Alcan and Norway's Norsk Hydro, Norway- 400 MW coal-fired power plant, post-combustion capture CO2 for EOR: Start-up 2011

Shell/Statoil Halten project, Norway- 860 MW natural gas power plant, post-combustion capture CO2 for EOR: Start-up 2011

Overview of CO2 Capture Processes

Population: Demographic Transition

Design for Efficiency Can Greatly Reduce Energy Usage

Green Buildings

Passive solar design for green buildings (www.nesea.org).

Energy audit consultants could assess building performance (Performance Systems Contracting in Ithaca) to identify priority improvements.

Buildings can be made more efficient by plugging air leaks and improving insulation, resulting in substantial savings, since cooling and heating cost the majority of building energy expenses.

Houses can become power producers via the renewables listed above. Solar power economical even in New York State.

Heating/Cooling Green Buildings

Passive solar design: windows on S side. Utilize overhangs to shade during summer, yet allow light from lower sun into interior during winter. Thermal mass (dark colored concrete, brick) moderates temp extremes by storing heat. Absorbs and stores heat during day, cooling rooms; releases heat slowly at night in winter. Cools during day in summer (www.nesea.org).

Plant trees to block wind in winter, cool in summer.

Bring insulation, installations up to Energy Star.

Base heating on solar thermal or geothermal.

Fuel pros and cons: Methane (natural gas) most efficient, cleanest fossil fuel, but increases C pool used in C cycle. Wood draws C from storage, transport, particulates harm health, so not a large scale solution.

Near Zero Carbon Footprint

Monitoring and Evaluation Systems

Residents Pay Almost No Energy Bills

Climate Change Education

Education has a multiplier effect as more people, more voters, learn about the reasons for transitioning.

In addition to purchasing carbon offsets for gasoline and jet fuel from www.terrapass.com

Tax-deductible donations directed to the Global Change Education Project of the Museum of the Earth at Paleontological Research Institute of Cornell University, contact info at www.priweb.org

New exhibit, with components communicated to sister museums, so huge multiplier. No $ to me, a volunteer.

The amount donated could be large, to offset a lifetime of fossil fuel usage with unintended consequences. “Unintended” since this isn’t about guilt or perfection; it’s about making a difference.

Solar Ovens

Developmental Myths (Richard Levins)

Backward is labor-intensive, modern is capital intensive

Diversity is backward, uniform monoculture is modern

Small scale is backward, large scale is modern

Backward is subjection to nature, modern is control of nature

Folk knowledge is backward, scientific knowledge is modern

Specialists are modern, generalists backward

The smaller the object of study, the more modern

Not So Fast Fixes: Will Scotty Beam Us Aboard?

Proposals: Space solar shield, or pumping CO2 into oceans, or blasting sulfates into atmosphere…

Problem of scale: Cost many $trillions, since:

Infrastucture to burn fossil fuels huge

While capturing concentrated CO2 from smokestacks is financially feasible and necessary, the infrastucture to separate diffuse CO2 from the atmosphere would have to cost many $trillions.

Many competing demands for funding $

Not only current demands, but $ will likely need to be devoted to increased struggles over resources

New needs for $ to mitigate impacts: irrigation systems & dikes, emigration due to sea level rising

Paths to Transition

Tremendous Need for Change Brings Tremendous Political Opportunities

Climate of change: Political will for transitioning growing, which means political opportunity.

Merits bipartisan support, since concerns national security as identified by Pentagon, regarding thermohaline circulation. Transitioning strengthens USA by reducing energy dependence on Middle East. Installing renewables creates jobs, stimulating economy (www.ApolloAlliance.org). Export renewable energy devices, instead of import.

USA needs to transition to encourage other countries to follow suit.

Political Opportunities

Strong legislation has been introduced, the Waxman Safe Climate Act (H.R. 5642) in the House and the Sanders-Boxer Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (S. 309) in the Senate. Both mandate an 80% reduction from the emissions of 1990 by 2050, reducing a few percent per year.

Scientists’ published predictions are based on the more conservative results of computer modeling, but modeling is extremely difficult for ice sheet crumbling, methane release from decomposition of melting permafrost tundra and from methane hydrates. Impacts will possibly accelerate more rapidly and with more severity than predicted.

Even meeting the 80% goal, the world will be fortunate if the damages are limited to published predictions. For the best chance to avoid worse damages, it’s imperative to enact laws that have not been compromised from the 80% goal.

Steps to Transition, Personal

Substituting fluorescent for incandescent bulbs can save 2/3 of lighting energy. Just doubling lighting efficiency nationwide would save more than the power from 50 nuclear reactors.

Vacuuming dust from coils of refrigerator and air conditioner removes insulation, increasing efficiency of heat transfer.

Cold water laundry detergent allows laundry to be washed in cold water, saving 90% of energy, better for clothing. On-demand water heaters heat water directly without the use of a storage tank, avoiding the standby heat losses of storage water heaters.

Plugging all entertainment equipment into a power strip makes it convenient to switch off to prevent keeping built-in transformers warm 24/7.

Transportation major source of USA’s emissions. Inflating tires to optimum increases miles per gallon. Hybrid vehicles store energy during braking to use less fuel.

3Rs: Reduce purchases. (Do I really need this?) Reuse (mugs, canvas shopping bags). Recycle what’s left.

Consumer Power

Transition to renewables can pay for investment over time, then pay dividends.

Consumers drive change. As more renewable markets get demonstrated by leading consumers, more businesses will invest in production of renewables, with economies of scale increasing efficiency of production and reducing cost for follow-on consumers.

Several ESCOs (Energy Service Companies) supply electricity from renewable sources.

Carbon offsets balance out auto and flight emissions by funding renewables: www.terrapass.com

Carbon Trading Delaying Strategy

In emissions trading (“cap-and-trade”), the  carbon emitted is capped. The overall amount of caps gets reduced each year. Companies exceeding cap buy credits from those producing less than cap, in a “trade”.

However, effective action requires reducing emissions at source, not trading.

Market variation and volatility of carbon trading hamper budget planning.

Regressive, since costs spread across incomes.

If slows economy, depresses labor market.

Offsets Counterproductive

Carbon offset or credit means paying someone else for reducing emissions, to compensate for one's own. Offsets, however, may actually build in net warming.

Planting trees to store carbon equal to consumers’ emissions. Inexpensive since solar power employed in photosynthesis over decades of growth, during which warming occurs due to consumers’ emissions acting to trap heat. So builds in increased warming. Near-term reduction at source much more beneficial.

Offsets excuse usual practices with regards to emissions. Funds invested in offsetting projects reduce amounts available for renewable energy.

Carbon Tax Effective & Efficient

Carbon tax: adds definite cost to carbon content of fossil fuels, reducing energy cost variability from cap–trade.

Tax gets applied upstream at sources of fossil fuels. Fewer entities taxed; minimal bureaucracy required.

Income tax drags on the economy; carbon tax positive in long term.

Short term: part of revenue used for labor–intensive efficiency improvements to housing for low income and elderly, pumping up labor market and economy.

Makes renewable energy sources more competitive.

Unlike cap-trade, tax does not in itself set a goal for emissions reduction. However, carbon tax policy tool to arrive at a goal. It does so more effectively and at less cost than capricious cap-trade.

Can be made progressive by using revenue to reduce lower level income taxes more than higher level.

Cap–trade regressive, slows economy, depresses labor market. Labor lobby should advocate carbon tax!

Worldwide Coal Protocol

Limited storage: proposed sites for storage leakage of << 1% per year.

Low cost of coal: added cost not likely to delay for years.

Conventional impractical to retrofit.

Lifetime of about fifty years, shut down early, investment problematic.

Construction rate > fifty plants/year worldwide, urgent.

Energy efficiency, renewables: fraction built.

“Carbon–capture ready” (CCR). Practical to retrofit.

Montreal. Worldwide protocol suspending conventional, new only CCR.

Worldwide protocol CCR simpler and faster to negotiate than agreement covering all heat–trapping emissions.

CCR cost more: World Bank makes loans to developing countries covering part of extra expense.

In developed countries, governments guarantee partial loans.

Protocol compliance: inspections by international teams to assure CCR.

During transition, shortages avoided by investing in renewables and efficiency.

Worldwide protocol signed ASAP to avoid committing to 50 years of unacceptable releases.

Tremendous Need for Change Brings Tremendous Opportunities

Food Choices Affect Resources Used

UNFAO reported that livestock farming generates more heat-trapping gasses than transportation.

Since production of plant-based foods consumes far fewer resources, it’s worth considering health benefits of increasing consumption of those foods, while reducing consumption of animal products to at most a deck of card’s worth a day, a single serving.

Such personal changes could eliminate over a ton of CO2 emissions per year, saving more energy than switching to a hybrid car. Multiply by 6.5+ billion people.

On website ClimateHealth.net, 2 books by MDs are listed that describe the scientific basis for health benefits of plant-based foods.

Everyone

Everyone has used fossil fuels, unintentionally contributing to global warming. It might be worth considering that everyone could support the transition to renewables with personal effort and resources.

Otherwise, CO2 increases will likely continue, with damage rates accelerating, possibly more rapidly and with more severity than usually predicted, since computer modeling is extremely difficult for ice sheet crumbling, and for methane release from decomposition of melting permafrost tundra and methane hydrates.

Biblical dominion means respect, creation salvation, stewardship, not trashing creation.

And while there’s life, there’s hope.

Cornucopia from Capitalism

Business Opportunities

Tremendous need for change creates tremendous business opportunities to do well doing good, prospering by transitioning.

As in the home, investments can pay for themselves over time, investments such as improving facilities performance efficiency with the furnace, insulation, and air leaks, etc., then pay dividends.

Use same or more power, complementing fossil fuel with renewables. Governmental rebates or tax incentives are often available for installing renewable energy sources.

Major businesses are urging strong legislation. The Climate Action Partnership is an alliance of environmental groups and businesses that have come together to call on the federal government to enact legislation, businesses such as Alcoa, Caterpillar, Duke Energy, Pacific Gas and Electric, DuPont, General Electric, and Lehman Brothers investment bankers.

Business Opportunities

Here are reasons they’re taking this initiative:

Institutional investors are demanding climate risk disclosures, providing concrete motivation for businesses to act to reduce risk, to transition.

To establish a framework for defining industry standards for equitable treatment of competitors, businesses need to support strong legislation to limit heat-trapping emissions with a well-defined timeline for goals and market-based incentives such as tradable emission permits, legislation such as the Waxman Safe Climate Act (H.R. 5642) in the House and the Sanders-Boxer Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (S. 309) in the Senate. Both mandate an 80% reduction from the emissions of 1990 by 2050, reducing a few percent per year.

Industry standards will reduce the concern among shareholders about the uncertainty and risk that currently surround planning regarding climate change.

Business Opportunities

Scientists’ published predictions are based on the more conservative results of computer modeling, but modeling is extremely difficult for ice sheet crumbling, methane release from decomposition of melting permafrost tundra and from methane hydrates. Impacts will possibly accelerate more rapidly and with more severity than predicted.

Even meeting the 80% goal, the world will be fortunate if the damages are limited to published predictions. Therefore it’s imperative to enact laws that have not been compromised from the 80% goal.

Energy cost volatility hampers strategic planning. Businesses can simultaneously increase their own energy independence and that of the USA by improving energy efficiencies and installing renewable energy sources, reducing energy cost volatility for increased cost control and profitability.

Business Opportunities

$10 bills on sidewalk: managers focused on task at hand

Even more effective usage of raw materials reduces waste and cost.

Make products from recycled materials better than products from raw materials: carpets, less outgassing from recycled.

2B people worldwide remain without electricity: sell 1W solar PV panels with 95% energy–efficient LEDs for $50. $/kW-hour far less over several years than the fuel for kerosene lamps that are also fire hazards.

Consumers already leading market change. Growing markets growing businesses – ESCOs, local startups –. Timberland shoe company's carbon footprint label.

Triple Bottom Line: Economically viable, socially responsible, and environmentally sound.

Energy Security Increases National Security

Climate change concerns national security as identified by Pentagon, regarding thermohaline circulation.

Transitioning to renewable energy sources strengthens USA by reducing energy dependence on Middle East.

Congress Voting (Energy) Independence

Renewable Energy Sources

Consumer Power

Activism

Tremendous Challenges Bring Tremendous Spiritual Opportunities

Climate change = Loss  Grief: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance of the reality of probable loss, experiencing the pain of the loss, reinvesting in the new reality.

Lessons civilization could learn: Creation is not only a natural resource to be exploited, not only for our enjoyment and entertainment.

Creation is the eternal in us; we are the eternal in nature; we are one.

Nature is to be revered: Creation salvation.

Sustainability

CO2 Emissions from USA 2005

U.S. Energy Consumption

U.S. Electric Power, 2004

NYS’s Electricity in 2003

Nuclear Power Stations

Brilliance of Humanity

Nighttime USA

World Population Growth

Family Planning Resources

Further increases in population will likely increase overall usage of fossil fuels.

Limitation of family size to zero net population growth (birth rate = death rate) will have a multiplier effect.

In addition to purchasing carbon offsets for gasoline and jet fuel from www.terrapass.com

Tax-deductible donations to highly effective Education and Resources of PlannedParenthood.org will have a multiplier effect.

The amount donated could be large, to offset a lifetime of fossil fuel usage with unintended consequences. “Unintended” since this isn’t about guilt or perfection; it’s about making a difference.

Agenda

Reasons for urgency in reduction of heat-trapping GHG (GreenHouse Gas) emissions

Justification for 80% reduction of heat-trapping emissions from 1990 levels by 2050

How to make a difference in GHG emissions

Further topics can be addressed as time allows

Outreach

    If you’re interested in spreading the word about this non-profit educational resource, please copy and send out the suggested text on the Outreach page to email lists.